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 The disastrously low
prices of consumption potatoes clearly indicate that that supply is too big
compared to demand. Says the Dutch Arable Farming Union (NAV) after analysing
the potato market in North Western Europe. Even though the demand amounts to
only 20-21 million tonnes, the supply this year amounts to 23 million tonnes.
The market cannot cope with this supply, and as a result the potato price has
completely collapsed.
According to NAV board member Keimpe van der Heide, figures over the period
from 1995 show that supply in North Western Europe fluctuates between 20 and 24
million. Only in the years with a production of 20-21 million tonnes (1998,
2003, 2005 and 2006) a somewhat acceptable selling price for growers was
realised. ‘Looking at the increasingly efficient use of potatoes by the potato
processing industry and the fact that consumption of potatoes and potato
products is quite consistent, growers in North Western Europe only need a supply
of 20-21 million. Everything produced above this amount, destroys the price and
frustrates an economically and socially sustainable potato growth in the
Netherlands, Belgium, France, Germany and the United Kingdom.’
Starting from an average yield in the five countries in the harvest years
2004 to 2008 of 46.3 tonnes per hectare, growers only need an acreage of between
432,000 and 456,000 hectare to meet the demand. Compared to the 491,000 ha in
2008, this comes down to a decrease in acreage of about 10%. Van der Heide gives
growers the urging advice to think about supply and demand in relation to
price.. ‘The data from the past show that if supply is in balance with demand,
the potato price easily increases by three to five eurocents per kilo compared
to an oversupply situation. A customised supply also enables growers to
realise a selling price that is in reasonable proportion to the cost price.’
There is no need to fear a potato deficit, because disappointing harvests in
one area are compensated with good harvests elsewhere. ‘It is not something we
only see this year, it also appears from the data collected by the NAV. The past
five years the average harvest in North Western Europe has fluctuated between
43.2 and 49.1 tonnes per hectare, with an average of 46.3 tonnes. In case of an
acreage decrease of 10% , a top year will see a potato supply of 21.7 million
tonnes and a bad year 19.1 million tonnes.’ Van der Heide points out that the
potato processing industry has the ability to cope with a possible minor deficit
by addressing the stocks in storage and to replenish the stocks in storage in a
year with a slightly higher supply than demand.
On what to do with the newly available acreage, the NAV does not advise root
crops, but rather crops that improve soil quality and ‘resting crops’.
‘Corns and lupines could help us bring the soil into better condition’,
according to the union member.
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