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What will potato harvest 2010 bring?
A brief look at the situation in
North-West Europe and North America.
North-West Europe
The North-west European Potato
growers (NEPG) predict for 2010 a potato
acreage in North-West Europe
(NL,B,UK,DE)
very similar to 2009 (linked article
in Dutch)
The only area where a significant
growth of the potato acreage is
reported, is Belgium (Vlaanderen).
Acreage in Vlaanderen is predicted to go
up 6.6%. This growth has largely been
linked to the increase of french fry
production in Belgium. Potato
processing in Belgium is expected to
pass the 3 million tonnes potatoes in
2010. An amazing growth, if you consider
that the level of 2 million tonnes
processed was reached in 2004. This puts
the Belgian potato processing volume at
a level very much comparable to the
production in the Netherlands.
Despite the growth in Belgium,
the overall acreage in North-West Europe
is not expected to increase, mainly
because of a 2.8% drop in acreage in the
United Kingdom.
The current hot topic in Europe is
not the acreage but the
expected yield, as
weather (cold spring, drought, heatwave)
is having a potentially detrimental
impact.
Early potatoes for processing
in Europe/Belgium are delayed by 2 to 3
weeks and lower yields are predicted.
E.g for the early potato variety
Premiere the
PCA Kruishoutem predicts only half the
normal yield (in Dutch). The "gap"
due to the late harvest and low yield of
early potatoes was filled by the
left-overs from last years crop.
However, similar concerns exist
for the main crop. The main harvest for
the potato processing industry still has
several weeks to go. The big question is
to what extent yield will be affected by
the weather conditions: Romain Cools of
Belgapom: "As a result of the cold
spring, potato plants are less developed
and as a result the hills gets more
exposure to solar radiation and heat,
resulting in water evaporation and
stress."
Recent rain may have corrected
potato yields to some extent, but it is
not just a question of yield. For
processors it is also a matter of
quality. High soil temperatures (due to
the heat combined with poor leaf
coverage due to the (earlier) drought)
could easily wreak havoc by inducing
secondary growth (Dutch: doorwas), with
a whole array of potential quality
issues.
Prices of potatoes have gone up
dramatically and both Dutch and Belgian
french fry manufacturers
have already stated that the price of
french fries will increase this season (in
Dutch).
United States
The United States Department of
Agriculture just released the official
estimates of the potato acreage in the
United States. Fall production is down
more than 4%. Striking is the reduction
in Idaho, down almost 8%.
| Fall Potato crop,
area planted
(NASS, USDA) |
|
United States |
1000 ha |
1000 acres |
Change |
|
2010 |
2009 |
2010 |
2009 |
% |
|
Idaho |
119.4 |
129.5 |
295 |
320 |
-7.8 |
|
Washington |
54.6 |
58.7 |
135 |
145 |
-6.9 |
|
North Dakota |
36.4 |
33.6 |
90 |
83 |
8.4 |
|
Wisconsin |
25.3 |
25.7 |
62.5 |
63.5 |
-1.6 |
|
Maine |
22.5 |
22.7 |
55.5 |
56 |
-0.9 |
|
Minnesota |
17.4 |
19.0 |
43 |
47 |
-8.5 |
|
Other States |
87.1 |
90.1 |
215.1 |
222.6 |
-3.4 |
|
Total |
362.7 |
379.3 |
896.1 |
937.1 |
-4.4 |
Canada
The official potato acreage
estimates for Canada are not yet
published. Initial indications are that
the Canadian Potato acreage is slightly
down. The PEI potato Board indicated the
acreage is similar to last year, while
New Brunswick Dept. of Agriculture and
Aquaculture expected a reduction of
2500-3000 acres on a total of 55.000
acres in 2009 (about -5%). Bruce
Huffaker (NAPMN) predicted for Canada
overall a 4.1% decrease. Once
Agriculture Canada publishes the
official estimates later in in July, we
will publish them on PotatoPro.
Enjoy reading,
Paul van Eijck
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