Brazil: extreme heat, rising costs, and falling prices create a challenging scenario for the potato sector

The end of March 2026 places potato growers in a complex chessboard scenario. On one hand, the advancement of technology and the recognition of key production hubs; on the other, climate and economic pressures that demand sharper risk management. These are the main highlights:
 

Climate: the challenge of 40°C in autumn

The beginning of the season was marked by atypical heat that hit southern Brazil. With temperatures reaching 40°C in Rio Grande do Sul and close to 38°C in Santa Catarina and Paraná, concerns are focused on water stress. INMET has already warned that, with below-average rainfall expected in the southeast, irrigation management will be crucial for productivity in Minas Gerais and São Paulo.
 

Economy: the impact of oil on transport and inputs

Instability in the Middle East caused oil prices to rise by 51%, directly impacting urea, which increased by up to 35%. In Brazil, the response was the exemption of PIS/Cofins taxes on diesel to ease pressure at the pump. However, the Parliamentary Agricultural Front (FPA) and CNA continue to monitor discrepancies in freight rate tables, an invisible cost that erodes potato growers’ margins.
 

Market: falling prices and quality challenges

The country’s main wholesale markets (São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Belo Horizonte) recorded price drops of up to 18.1%. This decline reflects the normalization of harvest flows after the rains, but brings a challenge: lot quality, particularly from the south and the Cerrado Mineiro, has shown inconsistencies that require greater attention in grading.
 

Innovation and legacy: Guarapuava and science in the field

Amid the challenges, there are also reasons to celebrate: Guarapuava (PR) was officially recognized as the Capital of English Potatoes. In terms of innovation, Embrapa is advancing the use of artificial intelligence to map productive areas, while the government is allocating BRL 120 (USD 22.8) million to modernize family farming, demonstrating that the sector continues to evolve.