Europe Faces One of Its Smallest Potato Harvests as Production Losses Could Exceed EUR 800 Million

New analysis using industry forecasts suggests lost production could cost farmers over EUR 800 million (USD 916.8 million) as Europe faces one of its smallest potato harvests on record.

The exceptionally hot and dry weather in summer 2026 is expected to reduce the NEPG potato harvest by 3.1 million tonnes, with yields falling between 7 percent and 21 percent below the five-year average across Belgium, Germany, France and the Netherlands. At prices agreed before the drought, this lost production is valued at between EUR 405 million (USD 464.1 million) and EUR 622 million (USD 712.8 million), with a central estimate of EUR 498 million (USD 570.7 million).

Including the expected impact of drought and heatwaves on the potato harvest in Great Britain, total lost production rises to more than 3.5 million tonnes. The value of these losses is estimated at between EUR 498 million (USD 570.7 million) and EUR 818 million (USD 937.4 million) across Great Britain and the NEPG countries. In Great Britain alone, losses are estimated at between GBP 80 million (USD 107.1 million) and GBP 169 million (USD 226.3 million). 
 

Smaller Planted Area Adds to Supply Contraction

The weather-related losses come on top of a substantial reduction in planted area following the record 27.3 million-tonne harvest in 2025, when oversupply pushed prices lower. Growers subsequently reduced potato planting by 11 percent in Germany, 10 percent in France, 15 percent in the Netherlands and 17 percent in Belgium.

Based on five-year average yields, the reduction in planted area removed a further 3.6 million tonnes of potential production. This market-related contraction is separate from the losses attributed to drought and high summer temperatures in 2026. 
 

European Potato Crop Could Reach Record Low

Industry estimates now place production at between 19.5 million and 20.5 million tonnes, while World Potato Markets says the European Union crop could be the smallest on record.

Germany is expected to record the largest weather-related production loss at 1.13 million tonnes, followed by France at 0.99 million tonnes. French yields are expected to be the lowest in more than 30 years.

Belgium is estimated to lose 0.79 million tonnes, with around half of the main frying variety below the size preferred by processors. The Netherlands is expected to lose 0.21 million tonnes. Great Britain, counted separately, is estimated to lose a further 0.44 million tonnes and is heading for its smallest potato harvest on record.