Record-Breaking El Niño Surges as Global Heat and Extreme Weather Risks Rise

A powerful El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean has already surpassed the previous temperature record for the phenomenon, raising concerns among climate scientists about potentially severe impacts around the world. 

The latest ocean temperature data shows temperatures in the central Pacific’s key El Niño region have reached 3.05°C above the 1991–2020 average, exceeding the previous record of 3.02°C recorded in November 2015. 

The unprecedented reading has occurred months before the expected peak of the current El Niño. 

Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather described forecasts for the coming months as “mind-blowing”. An average of 14 climate models suggests temperatures could reach around 4°C in November and December, a level substantially beyond previous major El Niño events.

El Niño Breaks Previous Temperature Record

El Niño is officially classified as an event when sea-surface temperatures in the relevant Pacific region rise at least 0.5°C above the long-term average. Events exceeding 2°C are considered “very strong”. 

Scientists say the current event is particularly concerning because it is developing against a much warmer global climate caused by human greenhouse-gas emissions.

Prof Friederike Otto, Professor of Climate Science at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London:

"This event is a huge redistribution of energy in the climate system and is dangerous because it is unfolding on top of a much warmer, human-influenced climate system. In many places around the world, we will see never-before-experienced heat extremes, with all their consequences on health, food security and water stress."

Extreme Weather and Food Security Under Threat

The combination of El Niño and long-term global warming could amplify extreme weather, affecting rainfall, droughts, wildfires and heatwaves across different regions. 

Indonesia has already experienced severe wildfires and dangerous air pollution, while reduced monsoon rainfall has raised concerns in parts of India. Drought in Central America and the Caribbean has contributed to crop losses and lower water levels in the Panama Canal, disrupting trade.

The World Food Programme has warned that the effects of El Niño could push millions more people into acute food insecurity and contribute to higher food prices. 

Other regions could face the opposite problem. Parts of South America are experiencing heavy rainfall and flooding, while scientists expect wetter conditions in parts of the southern United States during the coming winter. 

Australia and southern Africa could face increased heat, drought and wildfire risks during their summer months. Pacific tropical cyclones could also become more intense, while El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity.

Scientists Warn of Wider Global Impacts

Hausfather said previous strong El Niño events, including those of 1997–98 and 2015–16, were associated with hundreds of billions of dollars in global economic damage.

Zeke Hausfather, climate scientist and climate research lead at Stripe:

"Very strong El Niño events like those in 1997/1998 and 2015/2016 were associated with hundreds of billions of dollars in damages globally – this event is leaving those past ones in the dust."

Prof Kevin Trenberth of the US National Center for Atmospheric Research said the effects of El Niño are being amplified by a changing climate.

Prof Kevin Trenberth, Distinguished Scholar at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), United States:

"All effects from El Niño are magnified by global climate change. The northern summer of excess heat and wildfires in Europe, North America and Asia are but a sample of what is to come."

Scientists and international agencies are now preparing for potentially widespread consequences, with the World Meteorological Organization launching what it described as its largest mobilisation in 50 years to help national weather services provide early warnings.

António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations:

"El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather."

The combination of a record-strength El Niño and continued global warming is expected to make the coming months particularly challenging for communities vulnerable to extreme heat, drought, flooding, wildfires and food insecurity.