The European industrial potato sector is facing tighter supply for the 2026/27 season due to reduced plantings, heat waves and drought conditions in key producing regions. World Potato Markets projects that the 2026 harvest could fall below 40 million tonnes for the first time, around 15 million tonnes less than last year.
The expected decline comes after the oversupply recorded during the 2025/26 season. Ahead of the new season, plantings were reduced in an effort to rebalance the market. Germany, France, the Netherlands, Belgium and Poland recorded year-on-year declines in planted area. In addition, five recent heat waves and subsequent drought conditions could further limit harvest volumes.
European exports grow in several markets
The tighter supply outlook coincides with an increase in European exports of processed potato products to several markets. According to Trade Data Monitor, EU processed potato exports to South America grew 45.1% year-on-year in June, led by Brazil, Colombia and Chile. Shipments to the Middle East increased 23%, while exports to Africa rose 26.8%. In Asia, however, rolling 12-month volumes remain 23% lower due to stronger competition from regional suppliers.
Market sources indicate that trade conditions in North America have also influenced EU export activity. U.S. tariff policies and trade uncertainty have disrupted supply chains, while Canadian frozen french fry exports could face tariffs of up to 50% when entering the U.S. market. This reportedly led buyers in the Middle East and other markets to source European product.
Industrial potato prices rise sharply
Concerns over the 2026 harvest have also carried over into industrial potato prices. Expana benchmark prices for processing Fontane potatoes EXW Belgium rose from EUR 10 (USD 12) per tonne at the end of July 2026 to EUR 150 (USD 176) per tonne in early August.
Trade remains slow, with some growers delaying harvest while waiting for rain. Although rainfall is forecast for next week, operators are still unsure what impact it could have on yields and tuber size. As of August 25, prices remained at EUR 150 (USD 176) per tonne while the market awaited new signals on crop availability.
