NAV Warns: Slightly Lower Potato Costs in 2026 Leave No Room for Contract Price Cuts

The NAV Working Group for Potatoes for Consumption (WCA) has again estimated the cost price for the coming season (2026). In recent years, from the 2022 harvest through 2025, potato growers have faced a significant increase in cost prices. The WCA now expects the cost price for 2026 to decrease slightly compared to 2025, temporarily halting the sharp increases seen in recent seasons.

Seed potato costs are expected to be slightly lower, although only a limited number of growers will benefit. Labor costs continue to rise, while crop protection and fertilizer costs are projected to remain largely unchanged.

Cost price estimates for clay and sandy soils

WCA Komen calculations for the 2026 crop year indicate a cost price of 22.8 cents per kg for clay soil and 29.1 cents per kg for storage delivery in week 12. For sandy soil, these figures are 18.7 cents and 24.1 cents per kg, respectively.

Storage costs have increased significantly. While they were approximately EUR 1,100 (USD 1,298) per hectare for the 2019 harvest, they are now close to EUR 2,000 (USD 2,359) per hectare for 2026, depending heavily on the use of sprout suppressants.

Background and calculation method

The WCA has calculated the cost price of ware potatoes annually since 2010 using model farms on sandy and clay soils. The same methodology is applied each year to allow comparison over time. For recent estimates, yields have been reduced by 1.5 tons per hectare to reflect slightly declining productivity trends, although the 2025 season delivered stronger-than-expected results.

The cost price is calculated excluding VAT and irrigation. Irrigation is charged separately at EUR 270 per hectare per application with a 25 mm rate. Cultivation and storage costs are expected to remain comparable to 2025 levels.

For 2026, seed costs are lower, fertilizer may be slightly cheaper, and manure yields slightly higher. Labor expenses continue to rise. Land, crop protection, fuel and energy costs are assumed to remain stable, although energy prices may fluctuate during the season. Overall, the final calculation results in a cost price that is 0.2 to 0.4 cents per kg lower than last year.

Desired yield price and margin requirements

To ensure sustainable cultivation, the WCA adds a 15% margin to the basic cost price to determine the desired yield price. Increasing weather risks and the reduction of available crop protection products make this margin necessary to absorb setbacks.

For 2026, the desired yield price for delivery of French fry potatoes from the field is 18.7 cents per kg on sandy soil and 22.8 cents per kg on clay soil. For storage delivery in week 12, the desired prices are 24.1 cents and 29.1 cents per kg respectively.

These figures exclude irrigation costs. With two irrigations typically required each year, production costs rise by approximately 1 cent per kg.

Concerns over contract pricing

Initial indications suggest the French fry industry intends to lower contract prices by 3 to 5 cents per kg. According to the POC Contract Tool, the average contract price for the 2025 harvest in week 12 is about 26.5 cents per kg. A further reduction would place prices well below sustainable levels for many growers.

The WCA concludes that there is no room for contract price declines and warns that reducing prices could threaten long-term sector viability. Growers are encouraged to carefully assess their own farm-level cost prices before committing to contracts for 2026.

Table potatoes cost comparison

The WCA also analyzed the difference between French fry and table potatoes. The cost price of table potatoes is at least 2.5 to 3 cents per kg higher at comparable yields. Because yields and quality requirements vary widely, growers are advised to calculate costs individually. The 15% risk margin is considered essential due to the financial consequences of not meeting quality standards.