Dallas Potato Expo Highlights Trade Pressure, Lower Contracts and Shifting Demand in North America

The event in Dallas, Texas, was held against a backdrop of political uncertainty, including tariffs, strained international relationships and crackdowns on migrant labour. The Trump administration had provided farmers with near-record support payments of USD 40 billion last year, although this support was not specifically aimed at potato production.

The combined United States and Canadian potato crop was slightly smaller in 2025 than in 2024, totaling 24.4 million tonnes, yet supplies of processing potatoes remain plentiful. Industry representatives expressed concern about growing competition in the frozen fry and chip trade, particularly from China and India, where shipments have doubled and increased by one third respectively over the past year. This increased competition, along with resistance to tariffs, is impacting demand for United States product in the Asia Pacific region, while EU imports are also declining as tariffs take effect.

Most North American processing potatoes are sold under contract, and expectations are that both contract volumes and planted area will decrease in 2026. The fresh potato market is more fluid, with spot prices falling below the cost of production. Although challenging for growers, this has made potatoes more affordable for consumers.

Data from United Potato Growers of America showed that potatoes remain the most affordable vegetable in the US, with one dollar buying 1.1 kilograms of russet potatoes, 765 grams of red potatoes or 720 grams of yellow potatoes. Green cabbage was the only vegetable close in value, while mushrooms offered significantly less volume per dollar. 
 

Fresh demand strengthens in retail

Demand for fresh potatoes has increased. Potatoes USA reported that 51% of United States potato sales now occur through retail and 49% through foodservice, compared with 42% retail and 58% foodservice in 2019. Potatoes remain Americans’ favourite vegetable, and consumers expressed a more positive view of their health benefits in 2025 than the previous year.

New healthy eating guidelines released by the United States Health Department during the Expo placed potatoes firmly in the healthy vegetable category. However, fries and chips may still face scrutiny under ultra-processed food legislation, particularly due to the use of vegetable oils, which are viewed unfavourably by health officials. 
 

Variety debates and future competitiveness

At British Potato in November, a GB Potatoes debate examined the future of the long-standing variety Maris Piper. A similar discussion took place in Dallas regarding the future of Russet Burbank, a processing variety first selected in 1873 that still dominates the North American market. As in the UK, expectations suggest that older varieties may gradually be replaced by newer, more consumer-focused and disease-resistant options. Potatoes USA proposed a more coordinated, consumer-driven approach to variety development to better meet future market needs and remain competitive with European varieties. 
 

Weather remains the key production factor

Global potato production continues to be strongly influenced by weather conditions. Generally favourable growing conditions in the United States during 2025, apart from drought in eastern Canada, supported good crop development despite it being the fourth warmest year on record. However, concerns are growing for the 2026 season, as limited snowfall in the key north-west region of the United States could reduce irrigation water availability. In addition, a potential transition to an El Niño weather pattern may bring higher temperatures and further production risks.